Trends – Fact or Fiction?

Let’s start by considering two well-known quotations; “Knowledge is Power” (Sir Francis Bacon), and “Thinking maketh it so” (William Shakespeare).

Many of us in our private and business lives like to keep up to date with the latest trends, be they social, economic or just for fun. We, as curious individuals, like to know the key drivers that are influencing the now, and what may happen in the future.

We typically use this knowledge to make strategic decisions, to feel part of the crowd, or perhaps to simply equip ourselves with riveting dinner table conversation content to impress and stimulate our guests and friends. So yes, our awareness of trends does indeed potentially give us command over many things and people.

But what if this knowledge, derived from our understanding and belief of a trend is based on fiction? To put it bluntly, the author fabricated the trend, and then communicated it widely through various specifically selected channels, such as social media where their unassuming followers accepted it as fact without any reason for concern or doubt? Would their belief make this trend real, particularly if many believed it so?

Just look at how various individuals or organizations (private or political) disseminate information to a target audience for their own personal gains. Many a politician, in the past and today, have done so with great success. Unfortunately, it was only with hindsight that the trend was identified as fictional folly.

Many information seekers now look to artificial intelligent (A.I.) search engines (ChatGPT, Copilot, Grok, etc) for their insights and recommendations to various trends instead of using human intellect and analysis. The A.I. output being readily accepted as fact with minimal interrogation or suspicion.  

So how do we filter the fact from the fiction before we make them so?

The answer being a combination of independent quantitative and qualitative analysis based on the collective experience of many people who collaborate, discuss, interrogate and challenge what they observe, read and understand. Yes, it takes time, but it will hopefully uncover the fiction from the fact.

However, some people happily accept the fiction and will gleefully follow the false trend like a ‘lemming that is about to fall off a cliff’. Unfortunately, it is these gullible individuals that are commonly the target of the unscrupulous.

There are many trends emerging and currently in operation today. May I suggest that we relook at the two quotations mentioned at the beginning? Maybe they should read as ‘Knowledge could be Power and We decide whether to make it so”?

Will A.I. yield the right answer?

Everywhere one looks these days, the term A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) is bound to be seen. For those that are in the know, be they academics, corporates, or maybe just like you and I, everyone has an opinion about how it will drive innovation and be the visionary oracle of future thoughts.

But I’m not sure?

Those who are believers, inform us that A.I. is indeed the acknowledged master at identifying those minute signals of information that us mere human mortals just cannot see or understand. It then cleverly invokes its phenomenal artificial brain prowess to analyse, construct and then inform us of a forthcoming trend, be it immediate, or to occur in the fullness of time.  Some of us, who will not be named, willingly accept this information without any timely critique as to its relevance or validity.

Now a question for you to ponder. If we nonchalantly accept this A.I. prediction, will this prophecy actually become a reality? In the words of Shakespeare, “For there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” Therefore, if we blindly accept this A.I. prediction, will our thinking make it real?

But wait. What if we provide a counter acronym, and one that is more humanly discerned than the letters A.I., that being “Almost Intelligent” (aka AL.I.)?

Let’s apply this revised concept of A.I. to two well-known and universal scenarios to test this AL.I. variant theory.

Scenario 1: Teenage Children

Many parents leave the dishwasher door open in the hope that their teenage son or daughter will pick up their dirty dinner plate and cutlery and place it diligently in the nominated kitchen equipment with minimal or no fuss. Over a period of days and even months, strategic clues are left either verbally or physically for the intended recipient. If the traditional A.I. analysis process was invoked, these parental signals may have a different interpretation, such as mess is good, dirty plates have a fashionable place on the kitchen bench, or their bedroom floors, or that parents enjoy leaving cryptic hints as part of some intriguing treasure hunt gamification.
But if the application of AL.I. is invoked, the applied combination of all these parental signals, complete with the requisite human intervention would lead to a different outcome, that being, “Put them in the dishwasher, now!”
The AL.I. analysis results are in no doubt, nor misunderstanding by any of the participants.

Using a similar theme, let’s consider Scenario 2: A Messy Desk

Yes, I acknowledge that some of us do value the benefits derived from having a messy desk, particularly as it is reported by those who reportedly know better to foster and encourage an innovative mindset. However, using the traditional version of A.I., how would it interpret these desk presented signals, and then construct a logical conclusion? Those that support the philosophy that “mess is best” know that there is no systematic methodology being used to obtain the desired visual output, rather it is perhaps based on the individual’s mood, emotion, and a somewhat random and possibly perceived lazy personal disposition that may prevail at that point, and other times, in the working day.
A.I. hasn’t got a hope in analyzing this human trait, but AL.I, when combined with our visual receptivity and knowledge of the individual involved would immediately understand what is being demonstrated by the occupier of the desk in question.

So, the conclusion is that a word of caution is most definitely required when discussing the virtues of A.I.

Hence, for those of us seeking a better, and more possibly reliable analysis technique, may I suggest that the term AL.I. be used, where the application of a little bit of human thought could greatly improve the outcome where, “thinking may not make it so, but maybe”.